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金小胖是个聪明的小胖

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  • TA的每日心情
    擦汗
    2019-6-16 23:34
  • 签到天数: 1277 天

    [LV.10]大乘

    61#
    发表于 2018-1-11 23:28:57 | 只看该作者
    晨枫 发表于 2018-1-11 09:42
    那你的意思是说:中国的早期核发展是苏联保护的缘故,所以朝鲜现在的核发展是中国保护的缘故?这是不符合 ...

    老兵当然不是你说的意思。老兵的意思很明显。因为美苏之间的对抗,导致了对中国的利用,这个保护了中国能够发展出自己的核武器。

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    62#
     楼主| 发表于 2018-1-11 23:57:52 | 只看该作者
    冰蚁 发表于 2018-1-11 09:28
    老兵当然不是你说的意思。老兵的意思很明显。因为美苏之间的对抗,导致了对中国的利用,这个保护了中国能 ...

    你把时间错乱了。中国在64-76年之间,既反美也反苏,谈不上利用。
  • TA的每日心情
    擦汗
    2019-6-16 23:34
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    [LV.10]大乘

    63#
    发表于 2018-1-12 00:03:49 | 只看该作者
    晨枫 发表于 2018-1-11 10:57
    你把时间错乱了。中国在64-76年之间,既反美也反苏,谈不上利用。

    没错乱。中国对苏联的警惕尤盛,毕竟接壤。苏联不想把事情做绝,让中国倒向美国。美国也不愿意把事情做绝,使中国回到苏联那里。核打击中国也是冒着爆发两个阵营间的世界大战的风险。

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    64#
    发表于 2018-1-12 00:54:46 | 只看该作者
    按说,中国包养朝鲜是没问题的,但是朝鲜不想,要堂堂正正做人。

    所以,问题的关键就在这里,中国是大中华,朝鲜,韩国,日本,越南是小中华啊,一个个都太有志气了,个个都是“我命在我不在天”,再怎么看起来猥琐,骨子里都一股自强不息的劲头。东亚唯一例外的就是“保留了中华传统”的台湾,在两蒋死后就放弃了挣扎,和东南亚,欧洲,拉美,非洲的小国家一样,立志抱大腿了。

    点评

    油菜: 5.0
    油菜: 5
    很有些道理啊  发表于 2018-1-13 22:46
  • TA的每日心情
    开心
    2022-4-16 03:01
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    [LV.7]分神

    65#
    发表于 2018-1-12 01:47:11 | 只看该作者
    晨枫 发表于 2018-1-11 08:35
    正因为中俄没有提供朝鲜要求的安全保护,朝鲜才走上核道路。几大国担保的和平中立也不是选项,中俄都不能 ...

    这点我不敢苟同。实际上,是我们一直想,并且在实际上罩着朝鲜,提供了安全保护;但某些棒子不领情阿。不是我们让朝鲜不信任,而是朝鲜从来就没有信任过我们。就是在抗美援朝那个时候,朝鲜也在背地后里的各种防范和小动作。中朝友谊,是我们的宣传,而朝鲜也就在必要的时候宣传了一下。然后就成了大胖圣文圣武,步枪打飞机才取得了对美战争的胜利。

    这点南韩也一样,尽管山姆叠地不要脸的留下不走了,但韩国人各种小动作也是从来没有停止过。但也就是小动作了。毕竟刀还在叠地的手里握着。

    如果我们当年也不要脸,留下来,那么后果只有两个。一个是南韩样的北韩,一个是变成朝鲜省的北韩。无论哪一点,在国家层面,朝鲜都不会认同我们的选择。所以,将安全置于其他国家的承诺之下,从来就不是一个选项。

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    66#
     楼主| 发表于 2018-1-12 02:55:08 | 只看该作者
    水风 发表于 2018-1-11 11:47
    这点我不敢苟同。实际上,是我们一直想,并且在实际上罩着朝鲜,提供了安全保护;但某些棒子不领情阿。不 ...

    中国对朝鲜的安全保证在一定程度上可以与58年前苏联对中国的安全保证一样,接受一方并不信任,只要有可能,总是想突破的。

    志愿军在58年撤出朝鲜,除了毛的国际主义理想主义因素,那时国家根本负担不起长期在外国驻军。
  • TA的每日心情
    奋斗
    9 小时前
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    [LV.Master]无

    67#
    发表于 2018-1-12 07:06:31 | 只看该作者
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/don ... nterview-1515705497

    WASHINGTON—President Donald Trump suggested he has developed a positive relationship with North Korea’s leader despite their mutual public insults, signaling a possible new openness to diplomacy after months of escalating tensions over Pyongyang’s nuclear program.

    “I probably have a very good relationship with Kim Jong Un, ” Mr. Trump said in an interview on Thursday with The Wall Street Journal. “I have relationships with people. I think you people are surprised.”

    Asked if he has spoken with Mr. Kim, Mr. Trump said: ”I don’t want to comment on it. I’m not saying I have or haven’t. I just don’t want to comment.”

    点评

    油菜: 5.0 给力: 5.0
    油菜: 5 给力: 5
    川普给力 :)  发表于 2018-1-13 22:50
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    开心
    2023-1-5 00:48
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    [LV.Master]无

    68#
    发表于 2018-1-12 07:25:45 | 只看该作者
    晨枫 发表于 2018-1-11 09:42
    那你的意思是说:中国的早期核发展是苏联保护的缘故,所以朝鲜现在的核发展是中国保护的缘故?这是不符合 ...

    我说的是中国早期发展核武器没有被美苏消除是因为美苏对峙所产生的空间。

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    69#
     楼主| 发表于 2018-1-12 08:51:26 | 只看该作者
    老兵帅客 发表于 2018-1-11 17:25
    我说的是中国早期发展核武器没有被美苏消除是因为美苏对峙所产生的空间。 ...

    那朝鲜不一样吗?

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    70#
     楼主| 发表于 2018-1-12 08:52:08 | 只看该作者
    holycow 发表于 2018-1-11 17:06
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/donald-trump-signals-openness-to-north-korea-diplomacy-in-interview-151 ...

    这家伙已经不知道什么时候是胡说八道,什么时候不是了。
  • TA的每日心情
    慵懒
    2020-7-26 05:11
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    [LV.10]大乘

    71#
    发表于 2018-1-12 09:21:20 | 只看该作者
    本帖最后由 Dracula 于 2018-1-12 09:23 编辑
    晨枫 发表于 2018-1-12 08:52
    这家伙已经不知道什么时候是胡说八道,什么时候不是了。


    这是采访的原文,我把关于NAFTA,中国的那部分也都贴过来。

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/tra ... 515715481?mod=e2twp

    WSJ: Did you see the other economy news yesterday? The markets did dip a little bit after some news suggesting that you were going to maybe pull out of Nafta. I wonder where you’re at on Nafta and if you’re concerned about the impact pulling out and renegotiating could have on the market.

    Mr. Trump: I’m not sure that markets would dip; I think that markets would—I can tell you I’m not sure about world markets, but I can tell you I think the American market would go up if I terminated Nafta and renegotiated a new deal.

    We are—when I campaigned I said we’ll either renegotiate Nafta or I’ll terminate it.

    And nothing’s changed, I have fulfilled many of my campaign promises. One of the promises that you know is being very seriously negotiated right now is the wall and the wall will happen. And if you look—point, after point, after point—now we’ve had some turns. You always have to have flexibility. As an example, we’ve been much tougher on China, but not nearly as tough as I would be, but they are helping us a lot with North Korea.

    And you see in North Korea what’s happening with North Korea all of a sudden. China’s been helping us a lot, so you can veer a little bit differently, but for the most part everything I’ve said I’ve done.

    WSJ: And a question on China for you, just to follow up on Nafta, withdrawal is still on the table for you?

    Mr. Trump: If we don’t make the right deal, I will terminate Nafta. OK?

    Now, do I want to? No, I’d rather leave it, but I feel that if that if—you know, the United States has been treated very, very badly. That has been a terrible agreement for us, and if we don’t make a good deal for our country—we lose $71 billion in trade deficits with Mexico. We lose $17 billion with Canada. If we don’t make a fair deal for the United States and the United States taxpayer, then I will terminate it.

    WSJ: Do you have a timetable on that? I know there’s another round of talks coming up here this month.

    Mr. Trump: No, but, you know, I’m leaving it a little flexible because they have an election coming up. So I understand a lot of things are hard to negotiate prior to an election. They have an election coming up fairly shortly, and I understand that that makes it a little bit difficult for them, and I’m not looking to make the other side—so we’ll either make a deal or—there’s no rush, but I will say that if we don’t make a fair deal for this country, a Trump deal, then we’re not going to have—then we’re going to have a—I will terminate.

    With that being said, I would rather be able to negotiate. We’ve made a lot of headway. We’re moving along nicely. Bob Lighthizer and others are working very hard, and we’ll see what happens.

    But tremendous numbers of, you talk about auto plants like yesterday, but how about all the plants that have been taken out of this country and moved to Mexico. Like taking candy from a baby. No, I won’t let that happen.

    WSJ: And you mentioned the link between China and North Korea. We talked about that a little bit the last time we were in here.

    Mr. Trump: Right.

    WSJ: Is that—does that link still exist for you? Do you feel like China’s been helpful enough...

    (CROSSTALK)

    Mr. Trump
    : Not helpful enough, but they’ve been very helpful. Let’s put it this way, they’ve done more for me than they ever have for any American president. They still haven’t done enough. But they’ve done more for me than they have, by far, for any—I have a very good relationship with President Xi. I like him. He likes me. We have a great chemistry together. He’s—China has done far more for us than they ever have for any American president. With that being said, it’s not enough. They have to do more.

    WSJ: So when it comes to some of the decisions you have this month on aluminum, steel, the 301 case, does that...

    (CROSSTALK)

    Mr. Trump: For instance, at the very beginning, you know Obama felt—President Obama felt it was his biggest problem is North Korea. He said that openly. He said that to me, but he said that openly. It is a big problem, and they should not have left me with that problem. That should have been a problem that was solved by Obama, or Bush, or Clinton or anybody, because the longer it went, the worse, the more difficult the problem got. This should not have been a problem left on my desk, but it is, and I get things solved. And one way or the other, that problem is going to be solved.

    China has been helping us, and I appreciate the help, but they can do much more.

    WSJ: Are you worried, Mr. President, that sending—delaying military exercises on the peninsula for the Olympics sends the wrong message to the North?

    Mr. Trump: Say it again?

    WSJ: Are you concerned that delaying military exercises on the Korean Peninsula for the Olympics sends the wrong message to the North Koreans, that you’re in some way bending to them?

    Mr. Trump: You’re the first one that’s asked that question. No, I don’t think anybody thinks that I’m bending. I think that people that, if anything, I’m being too tough.

    No, I think it’s inappropriate to have the Olympics, have millions of people going to the Olympics hopefully, have North Korea going to the Olympics, and we’re having exercises on the beach. No, I think that it doesn’t—I think it sends a good message to North Korea, not a bad message. I think it would be totally inappropriate to do that during the Olympics.

    WSJ: You think North Korea is trying to drive a wedge between the two countries, between you and President Moon?

    Mr. Trump: I’ll let you know in—within the next 12 months, OK, Mike?

    WSJ: Sure.

    Mr. Trump: I will let you know. But if I were them I would try. But the difference is I’m president; other people aren’t. And I know more about wedges than any human being that’s ever lived, but I’ll let you know. But I’ll tell you, you know, when you talk about driving a wedge, we also have a thing called trade. And South Korea—brilliantly makes—we have a trade deficit with South Korea of $31 billion a year. That’s a pretty strong bargaining chip to me.

    With that being said, President Xi has been extremely generous with what he’s said, I like him a lot. I have a great relationship with him, as you know I have a great relationship with Prime Minister Abe of Japan and I probably have a very good relationship with Kim Jong Un of North Korea.

    I have relationships with people, I think you people are surprised.

    WSJ: Just to be clear, you haven’t spoken to the North Korean leader, I mean when you say a relationship with Korea—

    Mr. Trump: I don’t want to comment on it—I don’t want to comment, I’m not saying I have or I haven’t. But I just don’t—

    WSJ: Some people would see your tweets, which are sometimes combative towards Kim Jong Un...

    Mr. Trump: Sure, you see that a lot with me and then all of a sudden somebody’s my best friend. I could give you 20 examples. You give me 30. I’m a very flexible person.

  • TA的每日心情
    慵懒
    2020-7-26 05:11
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    [LV.10]大乘

    72#
    发表于 2018-1-12 09:35:51 | 只看该作者


    这是Trump关于DACA的一段话。

    Mr. Trump: That’s comprehensive—well, if we could do that, that’s fine. I don’t know that that’s going to be possible.

    There’s a lot of—there’s a lot of—there’s a big difference—first of all, there’s a big difference between DACA and Dreamers, OK?

    Dreamers are different. And I want American kids to be Dreamers also, by the way. I want American kids to be Dreamers also.

    But there’s a big difference between DACA and Dreamers. And a lot of times when I was with certain Democrats they kept using the word dreamer. I said, “Please, use the word DACA.” You know it’s a totally different word.

    我都怀疑他到底知不知道DACA到底是什么。
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    2023-1-5 00:48
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    [LV.Master]无

    73#
    发表于 2018-1-12 09:42:51 | 只看该作者
    晨枫 发表于 2018-1-11 19:51
    那朝鲜不一样吗?

    你算一下北京离那里才多远,离莫斯科有多远。
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    奋斗
    9 小时前
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    [LV.Master]无

    74#
    发表于 2018-1-12 09:56:36 | 只看该作者
    Dracula 发表于 2018-1-11 17:35
    这是Trump关于DACA的一段话。

    Mr. Trump: That’s comprehensive—well, if we could do that, that’s  ...

    Politics is about narratives, as Ted Cruz put it that way.

    So one side is always pro-choice, never pro-abortion; the other always pro-life, never anti-abortion.  The word matters, the phrase you use promotes a certain narrative.

    Like you want to buy a house but the realtor always wants to sell you a home.

    There is a reason why the DREAMER act was called that way in the first place; and there is a reason why Trump doesn't like that word and pushes for some alphabetic soup with no emotion attached to it.
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    擦汗
    2017-10-27 10:31
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    [LV.2]筑基

    75#
    发表于 2018-1-12 11:43:21 | 只看该作者
    老科学的家 发表于 2018-1-11 10:53
    事物反常即为妖。氢弹不好搞,朝鲜居然搞出来了。远程弹道导弹居然也成了。这进度对一个2000多万人口,工业 ...

    氢弹估计没搞出来,顶多是个热核增强蛋,否则三胖肯定弄个百万吨当量以上的,那样更有说服力,谁也不会再质疑了,以三胖尿性,只会往大里吹,绝不会还藏一手。
    远程导弹估计也是外来的发动机,很怀疑三胖能自己持续、批量生产。
    蛋蛋小型化不知道三胖到底搞得如何了,估计勉强能用,但是一旦放到远程蛋蛋上就打不远了。
  • TA的每日心情
    擦汗
    2017-10-27 10:31
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    [LV.2]筑基

    76#
    发表于 2018-1-12 11:49:40 | 只看该作者
    老兵帅客 发表于 2018-1-11 12:09
    问题是以朝鲜的国力,有意义的自我核保护是根本不可能的。

    你算一下朝鲜的核武器要自己能对美国形成威胁 ...

    这是对中国而言的。
    对三胖来说,只要有蛋蛋砸到美国本土的可能性就足以自保了。
    蝎子不需要能毒死老虎,只要能蛰的老虎挺痛的老虎就不会有动力去拍死蝎子了,尽管蝎子的刺儿再厉害也阻止不了老虎真的下狠心要拍死蝎子。
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    擦汗
    2017-10-27 10:31
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    [LV.2]筑基

    77#
    发表于 2018-1-12 11:51:52 | 只看该作者
    tangotango 发表于 2018-1-11 12:46
    不需要“有意义的自我核保护”,这是咱们工科人思维严谨扣细节的想法。
          核武这玩意首先是个 ...

    中国拥核两年就有了可靠的投送工具了,不过只能投到老大哥头上
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    擦汗
    2017-10-27 10:31
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    [LV.2]筑基

    78#
    发表于 2018-1-12 11:55:56 | 只看该作者
    本帖最后由 bslk8912 于 2018-1-15 14:11 编辑
    江城如画里 发表于 2018-1-11 12:52
    倒不是高看小金,但是我觉得这是在小金计划范围内的。其实从历史上看,韩国下软蛋几乎是必然的。之前延坪岛 ...


    两害相权取其轻,三胖活着虽然让中国难堪,但是比三胖死了中国不难堪要好的多。
    近百年的历史中,TG虽然狠,但更能忍。

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  • TA的每日心情
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    [LV.2]筑基

    79#
    发表于 2018-1-12 11:58:11 | 只看该作者
    曹操的槊 发表于 2018-1-11 13:06
    核自保最大的力量来自于威慑;
    其次来自于伤己及人,大约地球物理武器还是有搞头,东北亚打出个核冬天,大 ...

    三胖那点儿东凑西凑出来的货,估计离制造核冬天差老鼻子了,但是威慑是足够了。
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    开心
    2018-8-17 22:22
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    [LV.1]炼气

    80#
    发表于 2018-1-12 12:02:43 | 只看该作者
    晨枫 发表于 2018-1-11 22:40
    这是各人视点不同了。你认为的熊孩子,他却认为有志气。朝鲜需要的是在朝鲜自己确定的路线下的安全保证, ...

    这个倒是真的,每个人的安全阈值不一样。枕着核弹就睡得着是小金的心理安全保证。

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