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特朗普的第一个100天(续3)

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  • TA的每日心情
    慵懒
    2020-7-26 05:11
  • 签到天数: 1017 天

    [LV.10]大乘

    楼主
    发表于 2017-2-6 02:24:09 | 显示全部楼层
    本帖最后由 Dracula 于 2017-2-6 04:14 编辑
    holycow 发表于 2017-2-6 02:05
    晨大,外国人进美国移民关之前真没什么权的,只有一个due process, 这就是为什么华盛顿州AG要拿这条来告。 ...


    但是已经身在美国的人,比如持学生签证和工作签证的人,受美国司法管辖。Trump的这道禁令使得他们不敢离开美国,可以说是侵犯了他们的权益,他们有standing。如果能在法庭上证明这道禁令确实是muslim ban的话,那么它违反了政教分离的establishment clause 和equal protection clause。这个官司打赢的可能性还是有的。

    评分

    参与人数 4爱元 +22 收起 理由
    莳萝 + 2 涨姿势
    坚持到底 + 6
    料理鼠王 + 6
    holycow + 8

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  • TA的每日心情
    慵懒
    2020-7-26 05:11
  • 签到天数: 1017 天

    [LV.10]大乘

    沙发
    发表于 2017-2-6 02:49:36 | 显示全部楼层
    本帖最后由 Dracula 于 2017-2-6 03:44 编辑

    Trump的这道禁令反应了他的班子很差的执行能力。具体涉及的一些问题,根本就没考虑过。比如对有双重国籍的如何处理,有绿卡的如何处理,在伊拉克帮助美军的翻译应不应该特殊对待,在这几个国家的犹太人应不应该特殊对待,下禁令的时候已经上飞机的是不是应该不涉及等等。Steve Bannon没有这方面的实际知识,这些想不到,但应该意识到这个问题很复杂,至少应该找几个懂行的人问一下。而不是就他和31岁的Stephen Miller两个人自己搞出个禁令来,实际问题完全不考虑。持绿卡的一开始也被包括在内,也是Bannon特别指示的,完全没预料到这可能会遭到的强烈反弹。我看到很多共和党,对禁止难民挺支持或至少能接受,但对这件事的实际操作也是大摇其头。Trump虽然是商人出身,但其实没有运营过大型的组织。他最近10几年的财富增长,其实主要是依靠他的reality TV的节目。从这件事表现出的执行能力来看,他的政府就很难有多么大的作为。对我来说这有些安慰,他们就是作恶的话,破坏能量也有限。

    Trump这届政府的leaking可能也会是空前的。一方面联邦公务员大多数都可以算是属于establishment,对Trump很反感,很愿意泄露些让他难堪的消息。尤其是Trump还公开向情报机构宣战,把他们惹恼了的话,像当年的deep throat那样是什么都能够抖露出去的。而且就是Trump的圈子内部好像也争斗的挺厉害,Bannon, Kushner, Priebus, Conway这些人,谁也管不着谁,他们为了争夺权力很可能也会泄露些消息来打击对手。未来几年Trump的白宫会很热闹。

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    参与人数 5爱元 +22 收起 理由
    龙血树 + 4
    山远空寒 + 8 谢谢!有你,爱坛更精彩
    馒头笼子 + 2
    莳萝 + 2
    坚持到底 + 6

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  • TA的每日心情
    慵懒
    2020-7-26 05:11
  • 签到天数: 1017 天

    [LV.10]大乘

    板凳
    发表于 2017-2-6 04:40:14 | 显示全部楼层
    dynthia 发表于 2017-2-6 04:22
    Kent v. Dulles里面提出right to travel abroad是an important aspect of the citizen's liberty,但是这 ...

    我不懂这些细节。我看的是Noah Feldman在Bloomberg上的一篇文章。他作为自由派,肯定有他的偏见,但他是哈佛大学法学院的教授,他说的肯定在法律上有些依据,不是那么容易就被驳倒的,反对Trump禁令的一方至少在法律上有个case。

    https://www.bloomberg.com/view/a ... n-religious-liberty
  • TA的每日心情
    慵懒
    2020-7-26 05:11
  • 签到天数: 1017 天

    [LV.10]大乘

    地板
    发表于 2017-2-6 05:20:52 | 显示全部楼层
    dynthia 发表于 2017-2-6 04:43
    六十多年前,使用第一和第五修正案来挑战移民驱逐令的案子,是政府赢了……

    还留下了这么两句话:


    这个案子我知道一点,我以前写的一篇文章中还提到过,是麦卡锡主义时期,将在美国的曾经是共产党员但后来退党的永久居民驱逐出境。但是麦卡锡主义时期的很多判决现在已经不能算precedent了,我觉得这个判决应该不会是障碍。
  • TA的每日心情
    慵懒
    2020-7-26 05:11
  • 签到天数: 1017 天

    [LV.10]大乘

    5#
    发表于 2017-2-6 06:28:48 | 显示全部楼层
    晨枫 发表于 2017-2-6 06:12
    相信Bannon和Miller肯定也是先咨询过白宫法律顾问的,法律上不会一点也站不住脚。但这样的做法对美国道义 ...

    按惯例他们应该事先将命令交给司法部审查,是否符合法律。这个步骤也让Bannon给省了。司法部是命令发布后才知道的。
  • TA的每日心情
    慵懒
    2020-7-26 05:11
  • 签到天数: 1017 天

    [LV.10]大乘

    6#
    发表于 2017-2-6 06:35:39 | 显示全部楼层
    晨枫 发表于 2017-2-6 06:17
    对他的俄罗斯情节看到过靠谱的分析吗?到现在还是不大明白,这到底是哪里来的,光从地缘政治好像还不至于 ...

    尽管不同意,我还是能理解他联合俄国的政策。但对俄国,普金丝毫一点负面的话都特别避免,对世界上所有其它国家不管是盟友还是敌人他攻击起来却从来没有什么顾忌,实在是很难让人理解。我觉得最好的解释还是Trump公司的主要资金是来自俄国,经济上被人抓住命门。他那么坚持不公布税表也是因为这个。
  • TA的每日心情
    慵懒
    2020-7-26 05:11
  • 签到天数: 1017 天

    [LV.10]大乘

    7#
    发表于 2017-2-6 07:51:41 | 显示全部楼层
    晨枫 发表于 2017-2-6 07:42
    要似乎Trump公司的资金真的来自于俄罗斯,这就好玩了。这事有证据吗?

    确实的证据没有。大选的时候希拉里肯定也派人查过,但没查出来。但是我看到过的解释里,我觉得是最说得通的。
  • TA的每日心情
    慵懒
    2020-7-26 05:11
  • 签到天数: 1017 天

    [LV.10]大乘

    8#
    发表于 2017-2-6 07:58:36 | 显示全部楼层
    晨枫 发表于 2017-2-6 07:41
    那时司法部还是Sally Yates当代理部长,司法部还真是靠不住。白宫不是有White House Counsel吗,Don McGa ...

    我看到的报道是这个命令就是Bannon和Miller两个人搞出来的,别的谁都没咨询过。后来司法部的Office of Legal Counsel 的看法是Trump这个命令合法,因此就是事先通过司法部也不会有事。Bannon不事先通知司法部导致的后果是,当命令一实行,ACLU马上在波士顿告到联邦法院的时候,司法部给打了个措手不及,一点准备都没有,想辩护都不好辩护。
  • TA的每日心情
    慵懒
    2020-7-26 05:11
  • 签到天数: 1017 天

    [LV.10]大乘

    9#
    发表于 2017-2-6 12:43:19 | 显示全部楼层
    挺有意思的一篇文章

    Trump and Staff Rethink Tactics After Stumbles

    https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/ ... l?referer=&_r=1

    WASHINGTON — President Trump loves to set the day’s narrative at dawn, but the deeper story of his White House is best told at night.

    Aides confer in the dark because they cannot figure out how to operate the light switches in the cabinet room. Visitors conclude their meetings and then wander around, testing doorknobs until finding one that leads to an exit. In a darkened, mostly empty West Wing, Mr. Trump’s provocative chief strategist, Stephen K. Bannon, finishes another 16-hour day planning new lines of attack.

    Usually around 6:30 p.m., or sometimes later, Mr. Trump retires upstairs to the residence to recharge, vent and intermittently use Twitter. With his wife, Melania, and young son, Barron, staying in New York, he is almost always by himself, sometimes in the protective presence of his imposing longtime aide and former security chief, Keith Schiller. When Mr. Trump is not watching television in his bathrobe or on his phone reaching out to old campaign hands and advisers, he will sometimes set off to explore the unfamiliar surroundings of his new home.

    During his first two dizzying weeks in office, Mr. Trump, an outsider president working with a surprisingly small crew of no more than a half-dozen empowered aides with virtually no familiarity with the workings of the White House or federal government, sent shock waves at home and overseas with a succession of executive orders designed to fulfill campaign promises and taunt foreign leaders.

    “We are moving big and we are moving fast,” Mr. Bannon said, when asked about the upheaval of the first two weeks. “We didn’t come here to do small things.”

    But one thing has become apparent to both his allies and his opponents: When it comes to governing, speed does not always guarantee success.

    The bungled rollout of his executive order barring immigrants from seven predominantly Muslim countries, a flurry of other miscues and embarrassments, and an approval rating lower than that of any comparable first-term president in the history of polling have Mr. Trump and his top staff rethinking an improvisational approach to governing that mirrors his chaotic presidential campaign, administration officials and Trump insiders said.

    This account of the early days of the Trump White House is based on interviews with dozens of government officials, congressional aides, former staff members and other observers of the new administration, many of whom requested anonymity. At the center of the story, according to these sources, is a president determined to go big but increasingly frustrated by the efforts of his small team to contain the backlash.

    “What are we going to do about this?” Mr. Trump pointedly asked an aide last week, a period of turmoil briefly interrupted by the successful rollout of his Supreme Court selection, Judge Neil M. Gorsuch.

    Chris Ruddy, the chief executive of Newsmax Media and an old friend of the president’s, said: “I think, in his mind, the success of this is going to be the poll numbers. If they continue to be weak or go lower, then somebody’s going to have to bear some responsibility for that.”

    “I personally think that they’re missing the big picture here,” Mr. Ruddy said of Mr. Trump’s staff. “Now he’s so caught up, the administration is so caught up in turmoil, perceived chaos, that the Democrats smell blood, the protesters, the media smell blood.”

    One former staff member likened the aggressive approach of the first two weeks to D-Day, but said the president’s team had stormed the beaches without any plan for a longer war.

    Clashes among staff are common in the opening days of every administration, but they have seldom been so public and so pronounced this early. “This is a president who came to Washington vowing to shake up the establishment, and this is what it looks like. It’s going to be a little sloppy, there are going to be conflicts,” said Ari Fleischer, President George W. Bush’s first press secretary.

    All this is happening as Mr. Trump, a man of flexible ideology but fixed habits, adjusts to a new job, life and city.

    Cloistered in the White House, he now has little access to his fans and supporters — an important source of feedback and validation — and feels increasingly pinched by the pressures of the job and the constant presence of protests, one of the reasons he was forced to scrap a planned trip to Milwaukee last week. For a sense of what is happening outside, he watches cable, both at night and during the day — too much in the eyes of some aides — often offering a bitter play-by-play of critics like CNN’s Don Lemon.

    Until the past few days, Mr. Trump was telling his friends and advisers that he believed the opening stages of his presidency were going well. “Did you hear that, this guy thinks it’s been terrible!” Mr. Trump said mockingly to other aides when one dissenting view was voiced last week during a West Wing meeting.

    But his opinion has begun to change with a relentless parade of bad headlines.

    Mr. Trump got away from the White House this weekend for the first time since his inauguration, spending it in Palm Beach, Fla., at his private club, Mar-a-Lago, posting Twitter messages angrily — and in personal terms — about the federal judge who put a nationwide halt on the travel ban. Mr. Bannon and Reince Priebus, the two clashing power centers, traveled with him.

    By then, the president, for whom chains of command and policy minutiae rarely meant much, was demanding that Mr. Priebus begin to put in effect a much more conventional White House protocol that had been taken for granted in previous administrations: From now on, Mr. Trump would be looped in on the drafting of executive orders much earlier in the process.

    Another change will be a new set of checks on the previously unfettered power enjoyed by Mr. Bannon and the White House policy director, Stephen Miller, who oversees the implementation of the orders and who received the brunt of the internal and public criticism for the rollout of the travel ban.

    Mr. Priebus has told Mr. Trump and Mr. Bannon that the administration needs to rethink its policy and communications operation in the wake of embarrassing revelations that key details of the orders were withheld from agencies, White House staff and Republican congressional leaders like Speaker Paul D. Ryan.

    Also, Mr. Priebus has created a 10-point checklist for the release of any new initiatives that includes signoff from the communications department and the White House staff secretary, Robert Porter, according to several aides familiar with the process.

    Mr. Priebus bristles at the perception that he occupies a diminished perch in the West Wing pecking order compared with previous chiefs. But for the moment, Mr. Bannon remains the president’s dominant adviser, despite Mr. Trump’s anger that he was not fully briefed on details of the executive order he signed giving his chief strategist a seat on the National Security Council, a greater source of frustration to the president than the fallout from the travel ban.

    It is partly because he is seen as having a clear vision on policy. But it is also because others who had been expected to fill major roles have been less confident in asserting their power.

    Jared Kushner, Mr. Trump’s son-in-law, occupies a central role in the administration and has been present at most major decisions and photo ops, but he is a father of young children who has taken to life in Washington, and, along with his wife, Ivanka Trump, has already been spotted at events around town.

    Mr. Bannon has rushed into the vacuum, telling allies that he and Mr. Miller have a brief window in which to push through their vision of Mr. Trump’s economic nationalism.

    Mr. Bannon, whose website, Breitbart, was a magnet for white nationalists and xenophobic speech, has also tried to reassure official Washington. He has been careful to build bridges with the Republican establishment, especially Mr. Ryan — whom he once described as “the enemy” and vowed to force out. He now talks regularly with Mr. Ryan to coordinate strategy or plot their planned overhaul of the tax code.

    Before he was ousted in November as transition chief, Gov. Chris Christie of New Jersey, the Trump adviser with the most government experience, helped prepare a detailed staffing and implementation plan in line with the kickoff strategies of previous Republican presidents.

    Mr. Bannon, the chief strategist, and Mr. Priebus, the chief of staff, are the two clashing power centers of Mr. Trump’s White House. Credit Al Drago/The New York Times
    It was discarded — a senior Trump aide made a show of tossing it into a garbage can — for a strategy that prioritized the daily release of dramatic executive orders to put opponents on the defensive.

    Mr. Christie, who agrees in principle with the broad strokes of Mr. Trump’s immigration policy, says the president has been let down by his staff.

    “The president deserves better than the rollout he got on the immigration executive order,” Mr. Christie said. “The fact is that he’s put forward a policy that, in my opinion, is significantly more effective than what he had proposed during the campaign, yet because of the botched implementation, they allowed his opponents to attack him by calling it a Muslim ban.”

    In the past few days, Mr. Trump’s team has stressed its cohesion and the challenges of jump-starting an administration that few outside its group ever thought would exist.

    “This team spent months in the foxhole together during the campaign,” said Sean Spicer, the White House press secretary. “We moved into the White House as a unified team committed to enacting the president’s agenda.”

    As part of Mr. Trump’s Oval Office renovation, he ordered that four hardback chairs be placed in a semicircle around his Resolute Desk now heaped, in Trump Tower fashion, with memos and newspapers. They are an emblem of Mr. Trump’s in-your-face management style, but also a reminder that in the White House, the seats always outlast the people seated in them.

    But finding enough skilled players to fill key slots has not been easy: Mr. Spicer is serving double duty as communications director, a key planning position, in addition to engaging in day-to-day combat with the news media. Mr. Trump, several aides said, is used to quarterbacking his own media strategy, and did not see the value of hiring an outsider.

    An early plan was to give the communications job to Kellyanne Conway, his former campaign manager and top TV surrogate, but the demands of the job would have conflicted with Ms. Conway’s other duties as a free-range adviser to Mr. Trump with Oval Office walk-in privileges, according to one aide.

    Mr. Trump remains intensely focused on his brand, but the demands of the job mean he spends less time monitoring the news media — although he recently upgraded the flat-screen TV in his private dining room so he can watch the news while eating lunch.

    He often has to wait until the end of the workday before grinding through news clips with Mr. Spicer, marking the ones he does not like with a big arrow in black Sharpie — though he almost always makes time to monitor Mr. Spicer’s performance at the daily briefings, summoning him to offer praise or criticism, a West Wing aide said.

    Visitors to the Oval Office say Mr. Trump is obsessed with the décor — it is both a totem of a victory that validates him as a serious person and an image-burnishing backdrop — so he has told his staff to schedule as many televised events in the room as possible.

    To pass the time between meetings, Mr. Trump gives quick tours to visitors, highlighting little tweaks he has made after initially expecting he would have to pay for them himself.

    Flanking his desk are portraits of Presidents Thomas Jefferson and Andrew Jackson. He will linger on the opulence of the newly hung golden drapes, which he told a recent visitor were once used by Franklin D. Roosevelt but in fact were patterned for Bill Clinton. For a man who sometimes has trouble concentrating on policy memos, Mr. Trump was delighted to page through a book that offered him 17 window covering options.

    Ultimately, this is very much the White House that Mr. Trump wanted to build. But while the world reckons with the effect he is having on the presidency, he is adjusting to the effect of the presidency on him. He is now a public employee. And the only boss Mr. Trump ever had in his life was his father, a hard-driving developer the president still treats with deep reverence.

    With most of his belongings in New York, the only family picture on the shelf behind Mr. Trump’s desk is a small black-and-white photograph of that boss, Frederick Christ Trump.
  • TA的每日心情
    慵懒
    2020-7-26 05:11
  • 签到天数: 1017 天

    [LV.10]大乘

    10#
    发表于 2017-2-7 02:13:54 | 显示全部楼层
    本帖最后由 Dracula 于 2017-2-7 02:16 编辑
    晨枫 发表于 2017-2-6 13:29
    有意思。不过NYT属于深蓝,不能照单全收。看来我的猜想没错:Bannon的政治民科使得老板赔本,他在付出代 ...


    看了这篇纽约时报的报道,我对Trump也有点同情,妻子孩子都在纽约,就一个人在白宫。他对阅读研究政策文件这些事本来就没有什么兴趣,现在却每天必须花很多时间来干,70岁的人了,累了一天,晚上研究有线电视新闻,却发现净是负面报道。我也有点能理解他为什么对主流媒体那么敌视。而且不知道他的身体怎么样,我觉得有可能他熬不过4年。

    这篇文章提到的有意思的一点是,Steve Bannon破例被任命进National Security Council,原来并不是出自Trump自己的部署。是Bannon揽权,Trump也不懂糊里糊涂的就签了那条命令。很可能是事后看有线电视新闻的时候才意识到究竟是怎么一回事。
  • TA的每日心情
    慵懒
    2020-7-26 05:11
  • 签到天数: 1017 天

    [LV.10]大乘

    11#
    发表于 2017-2-8 23:44:18 | 显示全部楼层
    本帖最后由 Dracula 于 2017-2-9 00:10 编辑
    holycow 发表于 2017-2-6 03:40
    Flynn在跟Mattis,Kelly和Tillerson开战。那三个人又跟白宫的的幕僚班子暗斗。在达沃斯大言不惭以Trump经 ...


    这届政府真是什么都能leak。

    President Donald Trump was confused about the dollar: Was it a strong one that’s good for the economy? Or a weak one?

    So he made a call ― except not to any of the business leaders Trump brought into his administration or even to an old friend from his days in real estate. Instead, he called his national security adviser, retired Lt. Gen. Mike Flynn, according to two sources familiar with Flynn’s accounts of the incident.


    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/en ... f1e4b04061313a1fbb?

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