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[杂谈] “班农总统”的世界观

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  • TA的每日心情
    慵懒
    2020-7-26 05:11
  • 签到天数: 1017 天

    [LV.10]大乘

    楼主
    发表于 2017-2-13 10:13:41 | 显示全部楼层
    本帖最后由 Dracula 于 2017-2-13 10:36 编辑
    师傅姓陈名到底 发表于 2017-2-13 09:54
    这里大爷把中俄都定义成裙带资本主义了,还特别拿美国后院里的阿根廷举例说明,看来中美矛盾已经可以定性为 ...


    在Steve Bannon看来,世界的主要矛盾已经不是资本主义和共产主义之间,而是Judeo-Christian value和其它价值观的矛盾,而且这种矛盾是你死我活的,因此他才会用圣战这种词。也因为这个,他对俄罗斯特别友好,因为俄罗斯也是白人,普京维持传统的基督教价值观(禁止同性恋等),而对中国则认为几年之内就必有一战。有一种对Trump政策的解读就是联合俄国,对抗中国和ISIS。

  • TA的每日心情
    慵懒
    2020-7-26 05:11
  • 签到天数: 1017 天

    [LV.10]大乘

    沙发
    发表于 2017-2-13 10:20:38 | 显示全部楼层
    holycow 发表于 2017-2-13 09:55
    先把班农沙皇放一下,Flynn有一半的可能要掉脑袋了。作为一个前情报军官,这家伙该有多傻,竟然认为打电话 ...

    以前就是NSA知道,也很可能不会泄露出去,不像现在华盛顿邮报竟然能找到9个source,大家都是亟不可待地leak。

    Reince Priebus看来也要下去了。Trump身边的核心圈子为了争夺权力,倾轧的也确实厉害。

  • TA的每日心情
    慵懒
    2020-7-26 05:11
  • 签到天数: 1017 天

    [LV.10]大乘

    板凳
    发表于 2017-2-13 10:35:53 | 显示全部楼层
    本帖最后由 Dracula 于 2017-2-13 11:44 编辑

    最近几天看,Steve Bannon好像有点失势,掌管Trump政府外交政策的现在好像是Jared Kushner。Trump刚上任的时候,Kushner忙着在华盛顿安置妻子孩子,被Bannon钻了空子。但在权力争夺上他肯定比Bannon有优势,现在又扳回来了。不过他才36岁,以前从没有过任何外交经验。一下子给推到这么高的位置上我觉得是很悬。而且Trump派他去解决中东和平问题。那个地方过去70年,多少聪明的人都想不出办法,他偏要去趟这潭浑水,也有点自视太高了,Trump也是在害他。他能在这个位子上待多久不清楚。
  • TA的每日心情
    慵懒
    2020-7-26 05:11
  • 签到天数: 1017 天

    [LV.10]大乘

    地板
    发表于 2017-2-13 11:50:06 | 显示全部楼层
    晨枫 发表于 2017-2-13 11:38
    Priebus犯了什么事?这么一折腾,还有几个能留下?

    Trump的亲信在CNN的节目上攻击Priebus,要他下台。

    Trump friend says Priebus is ‘in way over his head’

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/n ... _term=.3765eb6cbefe

    不知道他这么干,是出于Trump还是和Priebus争权的人的授意。

  • TA的每日心情
    慵懒
    2020-7-26 05:11
  • 签到天数: 1017 天

    [LV.10]大乘

    5#
    发表于 2017-2-15 00:39:33 | 显示全部楼层
    晨枫 发表于 2017-2-13 11:38
    Priebus犯了什么事?这么一折腾,还有几个能留下?

    As Flynn Resigns, Priebus Future In Doubt As Trump Allies Circulate List of Alternate Chief of Staff Candidates

    http://www.breitbart.com/big-gov ... f-staff-candidates/

    这是Breitbart的消息,本身可信度是不高。但是说明Steve Bannon现在正在发动力量要搞掉Priebus。我还看到消息,Kellyanne Conway也想搞掉Priebus,自己取而代之。可能她和Bannon在这个问题上联盟。好像Priebus担任Chief of Staff是Kushner推荐的。昨天Kushner还发tweet,支持Priebus。这场权力斗争谁会赢,还不清楚。

  • TA的每日心情
    慵懒
    2020-7-26 05:11
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    [LV.10]大乘

    6#
    发表于 2017-2-15 02:09:04 | 显示全部楼层
    晨枫 发表于 2017-2-15 01:13
    哇,才一个月不到,就好戏连连!拿爆米花来!

    个人认为,弗林刚辞职,除非普利巴斯有什么把柄被 ...

    我也不清楚。不过有人怀疑David Petraeus能不能拿回security clearance。

    National Security Advisor这个活现在很不好干,得跟Bannon、Kushner争权,才能真正对实际政策有所影响。要是和Trump没什么特别的私人关系的话,我觉得会是干受气,出了事的话反而会跟Flynn一样给扔到车下。David Petraeus就是能干上,我也不看好。

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  • TA的每日心情
    慵懒
    2020-7-26 05:11
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    [LV.10]大乘

    7#
    发表于 2017-2-15 10:56:47 | 显示全部楼层
    晨枫 发表于 2017-2-15 01:13
    哇,才一个月不到,就好戏连连!拿爆米花来!

    个人认为,弗林刚辞职,除非普利巴斯有什么把柄被 ...

    Mike Flynn Is First Casualty of Turmoil in Trump Administration

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/mik ... stration-1487121454

    WASHINGTON—Dining at his oceanside resort in Florida on Friday, President Donald Trump was surprised to learn that national security adviser Michael Flynn was sitting at a nearby table, a person familiar with the event said.

    “What is he doing here?” the president said, describing the man who was once at the center of his political orbit as “very controversial.”

    The moment epitomizes how quickly fortunes can change amid the chaos that has defined the opening act of Mr. Trump’s presidency. In just a few weeks, the nascent administration is being weighed down from within, sidetracked by dishonesty and potential ethical lapses as well as attacks from his own supporters and fellow Republicans.

    Mr. Flynn on Monday became the first casualty of that chaos, resigning as head of the National Security Council after he lost the president’s trust by failing to fully disclose his conversations with Russian officials to senior White House officials, including Vice President Mike Pence.
         
    “It’s a dysfunctional White House, and nobody knows who’s in charge,” Sen. John McCain (R., Ariz.) told reporters on Tuesday.

    Several congressional committees are investigating the possible role that Russia played in the 2016 elections. In addition, the Republican-run House Oversight Committee has begun examining issues related to conflicts of interest and protection of classified information in the new White House.

    The administration’s senior ranks are creating headlines of their own as they jockey for power and influence with the president.

    Kellyanne Conway, a senior adviser, faces calls for an ethics investigation and possible disciplinary action. The Office of Government Ethics wrote to the White House on Tuesday that there was “strong reason” to believe Ms. Conway violated ethics rules for endorsing the product line of Mr. Trump’s daughter during a television interview.

    Ms. Conway also appeared to be out of the loop, going on television Monday to declare that the president had “full confidence” in Mr. Flynn only to be contradicted within the hour by press secretary Sean Spicer, who said the president was still evaluating the national security adviser’s status.

    Chief of Staff Reince Priebus also found himself with unwanted attention when Newsmax Chief Executive Christopher Ruddy, one of the president’s friends and a member of the Mar-a-lago oceanside resort, on Sunday talk shows expressed frustration with Mr. Priebus’s performance. Messrs. Priebus and Jared Kushner, the president’s son-in-law and top adviser, later called Mr. Ruddy and briefed him on plans to improve communications going forward. The media executive now has reversed his opinion of the White House team.

    Still, Mr. Priebus has other detractors.

    “Reince Priebus walked Mike Flynn to the gallows,” Roger Stone, a former political adviser for Mr. Trump, said on Tuesday, calling it a “Pearl Harbor moment” for Trump supporters. “Trump loyalists are fed up with Reince Priebus and Sean Spicer whose loyalties are to the Republican National Committee, and not to the president.”

    But even for a White House that has been in nearly constant damage control, Mr. Flynn was a consistent flashpoint.

    Two days before Mr. Trump’s inauguration, Mr. Kushner and senior adviser Steve Bannon took a red-eye flight from New York to Washington to ease concerns about Mr. Flynn from incoming cabinet members, including eventual Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and Defense Secretary Jim Mattis.

    The administration later installed Keith Kellogg as Mr. Flynn’s staff chief and elevated the role of homeland security adviser, Tom Bossert, to give him equal sway inside the White House as Mr. Flynn.

    On Tuesday, Mr. Kellogg, who was named interim national security adviser following Mr. Flynn’s resignation, led an all-hands meeting of National Security Council staff. The message was direct and simple, said one attendee: Keep working hard, and please, don’t quit.

    Mr. Flynn’s resignation surprised Japanese officials, who said the adviser was key in orchestrating the Trump administration’s fledgling relationship with Tokyo. Mr. Flynn had attended “nearly all of the events” during Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s visit to Washington and Florida last week, officials said.

    He sat in on the meeting between Messrs. Trump and Abe at the White House on Friday, and, at Mar-a-Lago, was involved in drafting statements to condemn North Korea’s launching of a ballistic missile into the Sea of Japan over the weekend.

    Mr. Flynn loomed large in the country’s bilateral interactions with Japan, due in part to the fact that Mr. Tillerson hadn’t yet been confirmed, officials said. Mr. Flynn visited Tokyo and was the only attendee at Mr. Trump’s November meeting with Mr. Abe at Trump Tower, after an initial greeting session with a bigger group.

    “We tried to help him succeed,” one senior administration official said. “It was absolute dysfunction.”

    The intrigue is likely to continue.

    Senior White House advisers have suggested to cabinet secretaries or nominees that they need to be consulted on all personnel and policy decisions, creating friction between the agencies and the White House officials who have been permanently stationed inside their buildings.

    Many of the U.S. ambassadorships remain unfilled, a result of a standoff between Mr. Tillerson and Mr. Priebus, the chief of staff, said people familiar with the process.

    Mr. Trump had told Mr. Tillerson he would have a say in appointing some key ambassadorships, including Canada and Switzerland, those people said. Mr. Priebus subsequently got the president to approve names for those positions—including several top donors to the RNC—without consulting the secretary of state, which angered Mr. Tillerson.

    Spokesmen for the State Department and Mr. Priebus didn’t respond to requests for comment.

    The infighting has sown growing insecurity among Mr. Priebus and his top aides.

    When Mr. Trump called Mr. Bossert, the homeland security adviser, into his office earlier this month, deputy chief of staff Katie Walsh spotted him entering the Oval Office and sprinted down the hallway to alert her boss, Mr. Priebus, according to a person familiar with the events. Mr. Priebus subsequently dashed into the office, where he reprimanded Mr. Bossert—in front of Mr. Trump—for trying to meet with the president without him.

    “Reince is doing a great job,” Mr. Trump told reporters at the White House on Monday. “Not a good job. A great job.”

    Mr. Trump avoided questions about Mr. Flynn Monday during a news conference with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. Consequently, reporters lined up and spent three hours waiting outside Mr. Spicer’s office to get an update.

    When Mr. Trump walked by on his way to the Oval Office, they shouted questions about him about his national security adviser.

    Mr. Trump ignored them, and turned to a picture on the wall of the audience that witnessed his inaugural speech on Jan. 20. Mr. Trump ignited the first controversy of his presidency by ordering Mr. Spicer to push back on widely reported data that showed that the crowd witnessing his inauguration was smaller than his predecessor’s audience.

    “Where did all these people come from? Ohhh,” Mr. Trump said, feigning surprise as he leaned over the picture and pointed to individual people in the crowd.


  • TA的每日心情
    慵懒
    2020-7-26 05:11
  • 签到天数: 1017 天

    [LV.10]大乘

    8#
    发表于 2017-2-16 01:49:08 | 显示全部楼层
    晨枫 发表于 2017-2-15 11:18
    他要是把Priebus也fire掉,和RNC的联系就几乎断了。他还真打算独挑国会两党?

    Conway关于伊万卡的背书可 ...

    Rex Tillerson和Trump的关系并不好。之前穆斯林禁令颁布的时候,事前根本对他没有通知,征求他的意见让他很不高兴。上面那篇华尔街时报的文章提到,本来Trump许诺加拿大和瑞士的大使Tillerson可以犒劳他自己的人,结果Priebus给了给RNC捐款的金主。还有Tillerson本来是希望Elliott Abrams担任他的二把手,结果被Trump否了,原因是Abrams在大选时批评过他。可能现在Tillerson也意识到,自己这个国务卿就是名义上的,实权上还比不上Kushner和Bannon,也一肚子气。而且前几天我看到的关于National Security Council的文章里提到,NSC的staff里士气低沉,究竟白宫是什么外交政策他们都不清楚,得从Trump不停的tweet里推测。外交部应该也是类似。Tillerson现在一方面要先安抚外交部的人心,一方面也没法有自己的initiative。说不定现在也有点后悔,当初不应该接受这个看上去很光彩的任命。

  • TA的每日心情
    慵懒
    2020-7-26 05:11
  • 签到天数: 1017 天

    [LV.10]大乘

    9#
    发表于 2017-2-17 04:15:09 | 显示全部楼层
    海天 发表于 2017-2-17 02:58
    川普转向了?开始对俄国和普京说坏话……

    好像俄罗斯方面也有所变化。我从twitter上看到的消息,以前俄罗斯的电视台对Trump的报道都是一片赞美之词,最近24个小时都给停了。我一直觉得Trump就是想联俄,对普京只有赞美的做法也挺愚蠢,就是演戏也应该装着批评几句。现在在他和俄国关系不管真的假的各种传言的阴影下,想解除对俄国的制裁,美俄成为盟友已经不太可能了。我看到有的评论认为普京可能有点失算,他扶植Trump上台,反而可能会让美国对俄国的敌视情绪更强烈,

    不过刚才我看Trump的记者招待会,被问到俄罗斯最近在军事上的一些挑衅行动,他还是没有点强硬些的态度。最后被记者逼的,唯一的回答就是我会怎么回应俄罗斯就是不告诉你,朝鲜导弹试射怎么回应也不告诉你。当然他很可能就是不知道应该怎么办,但按他的性格我总期待他能放几句狠话。

    另外他的这个记者招待会也是个奇观,吹嘘他的electoral college上的胜利是里根以来最大,被记者当场指出这是谎话(老布什、克林顿、奥巴马都比他高)后,面不改色,马上回答这是他手下给他信息,不该他的事。我觉得他吹这个牛的时候,很可能就真的相信他说的是事实,他的手下也从来没人敢给他指出来过。但他当场被人拆穿谎话后的脸皮之厚,就是在职业搞政治的人中也是一绝。

  • TA的每日心情
    慵懒
    2020-7-26 05:11
  • 签到天数: 1017 天

    [LV.10]大乘

    10#
    发表于 2017-2-17 23:20:08 | 显示全部楼层
    晨枫 发表于 2017-2-15 01:13
    哇,才一个月不到,就好戏连连!拿爆米花来!

    个人认为,弗林刚辞职,除非普利巴斯有什么把柄被 ...



    http://www.politico.com/story/20 ... -trump-balks-235120


    According to an individual familiar with Harward's thinking, the former Navy SEAL who served on the National Security Council under President George W. Bush turned down the Trump offer because he did not receive sufficient assurances about staffing and autonomy. Specifically, the source said Harward wanted commitments that the National Security Council would be fully in charge of security matters, not Trump's political advisers. And he wanted to be able to select his own staff.

    Trump's decision last month to place his top strategist and former Breitbart CEO Steve Bannon on the National Security Council was roundly criticized as a departure from tradition, and previous administrations have tried to keep the NSC as divorced from politics as possible.

    The individual familiar with Harward's thinking, who asked that he not be identified, cited the "unwillingness of White House political team to be deferential to the White House national security team” and "unwillingness of [the] White House political team to be malleable” as driving factors in why Harward demurred.




    看来Steve Bannon争权还是争得很紧。Harward是这样,别的能力强的人估计也不愿意干这份没权还受气的工作。Trump的外交安全政策在未来一段时间还是会被Bannon,Kushner用你的话来说民科的一群人来控制。



  • TA的每日心情
    慵懒
    2020-7-26 05:11
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    [LV.10]大乘

    11#
    发表于 2017-2-17 23:23:52 | 显示全部楼层
    海天 发表于 2017-2-17 02:58
    川普转向了?开始对俄国和普京说坏话……

    穆斯林禁令的那个案子,Trump的司法部已经认输了。下个星期会发新的修改过的命令。我估计在新命令下,至少现在已经在美国持学生、工作签证的人会被排除在外。

  • TA的每日心情
    慵懒
    2020-7-26 05:11
  • 签到天数: 1017 天

    [LV.10]大乘

    12#
    发表于 2017-2-18 00:52:57 | 显示全部楼层
    晨枫 发表于 2017-2-18 00:08
    现在大批美国精神病医生不顾职业操守规定,联名指出他有精神病症状,不适合当总统。在大选中,已经有这样 ...

    Trump的有一些讲话,确实让人怀疑他是不是在老年痴呆症早期。

    比如1个星期以前,Trump 和航空公司CEO会谈,这是他讲话的一个部分



    看完之后,我很难不觉得说这些话的人在智力上没有点问题。

    我记得在电视剧The West Wing里,当遇到关于national security问题的讨论时,总统的political team都自觉从房间退出,因为至少从原则上来说,national security的问题和党派政治不应该有什么关系。这可能是以前的惯例。我觉得Harward关心的主要并不是这个原则问题,而是意识到只有把Bannon的影响排除掉,自己作为National Security Adviser才能顺利干下去。但看来Bannon在这方面抓权抓得很紧(Flynn下台我都怀疑是不是他在背后也捅过刀子)。

  • TA的每日心情
    慵懒
    2020-7-26 05:11
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    [LV.10]大乘

    13#
    发表于 2017-2-18 04:42:11 | 显示全部楼层
    晨枫 发表于 2017-2-18 00:57
    同感,Harwood要是不能把Bannon从NSC赶出去,他就没法做这个NSA。

    刚看到的,John Bolton是National Security Adviser的候选人之一。这个Bolton几个星期以前发过篇文章,认为美国应该在台湾驻军。

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