注册 登录
爱吱声 返回首页

得大自在的个人空间 http://www.aswetalk.net/bbs/?312 [收藏] [复制] [分享] [RSS]

日志

The Dow’s tumultuous 120-year history, in one chart

热度 4已有 1203 次阅读2017-8-2 07:56


The U.S. won the space race by landing on the moon first in 1969, but on Earth, the Dow had little to celebrate as it remained stuck in its third-longest recovery period.
The U.S. won the space race by landing on the moon first in 1969, but on Earth, the Dow had little to celebrate as it remained stuck in its third-longest recovery period.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA+0.33%   is one of the oldest and best-known indexes in the world. It has, by its nature as a benchmark for the largest stock market in the world, become an important barometer of global confidence over the years.

Larger version of the chart


Chris Kacher, managing director of MoKa Investors, published a graph of the Dow’s performance since 1896 that charts how the index’s peaks and troughs have reflected the U.S. economy’s triumphs and tribulations. But more than that, the graph also illustrates how the Dow has become a chronicle of investors’ responses to significant global events.

At its simplest, the chart proves once again that over the long term, the stock market always rises because “intelligence, creativity, and innovation always trump fear,” according to Kacher.

Yet at the same time, it also underscores the basic mantra that market participants need to stay nimble during times of uncertainty to maximize their returns.

Investors must stay fluid to changing market conditions and not become wedded to their stocks, said the strategist.

“There is no get-rich-quick scheme. There is no such thing as a black box where you press a button and let it run indefinitely. Investing is more challenging than brain surgery,” Kacher told MarketWatch.

The Dow, which began its career with 12 components, has risen more than 50,000% over its lifetime. During the same period, the U.S.’s nominal gross domestic product has boomed 118,583%, according to Measuring Worth, a website run by academics Lawrence Officer and Samuel Williamson.

But the Dow’s upside trajectory has always not been smooth. In between its bursts of energy that eventually took the blue-chip index beyond the 20,000 mark in 2017 were long periods of misery when the market remained in a downward spiral or moved sideways.

It took 25 years for the market to recover from the 1929 stock-market crash, and 16 years for stocks to bounce back from the combined effect of the Vietnam War, the 1973 oil shock and the resignation of President Richard Nixon.

For Kacher, the current market is a prime case where investors need to distance themselves from their emotions and remain fleet on their feet.

After a multimonth rally that propelled the Dow above the historic milestone of 21,000 in March, the blue-chip index has largely remained range-bound as President Donald Trump’s pro-business agenda runs up against the reality of politics.

“We are at a minor tipping point and we are not sure where the market is headed,” Kacher said.

This state of uncertainty is likely to linger as long as the global debt frenzy, fueled by easy money policies embraced by central banks, continues its unwieldy growth.

Even as the Federal Reserve remains on track to continue normalizing its monetary policy and indicated its intention to shrink its gargantuan $4.5 trillion balance sheet, it could take years for any real impact to be felt.

Read: All of the important Dow milestones in one chart

“There have been no signs of QE slowing as global central banks have bought $1.5 trillion in assets this year alone, pushing the global total to $15.1 trillion,” Kacher told MarketWatch this week.

Indeed, Kacher believes the Fed would be “foolish” to raise interest rates again in the near term if economic data remain soft.

“These are unprecedented times. Global debt of this magnitude has historically has a calamitous ending,” he said.

As a result, investors must be prepared to adjust their strategies to adapt to the changing environment.

“Be flexible,” he said.

As his 120-year chart clearly demonstrates, the market always recovers. But sometimes, it just takes a little longer.

 

2

膜拜

鸡蛋
1

鲜花

路过

雷人
1

开心

感动

难过

刚表态过的朋友 (4 人)

评论 (0 个评论)

facelist doodle 涂鸦板

您需要登录后才可以评论 登录 | 注册

手机版|小黑屋|Archiver|网站错误报告|爱吱声   

GMT+8, 2024-5-6 10:38 , Processed in 0.027544 second(s), 17 queries , Gzip On.

Powered by Discuz! X3.2

© 2001-2013 Comsenz Inc.

返回顶部